A Free Voice


Poll: Most Democrats wanted Bush to fail
March 10, 2009, 12:20 am
Filed under: Iraq War, Media Bias, Obama | Tags: , , , , ,

Not so surprising, a  Fox News poll that goes over public  from 2006 shows that a majority of Democrats wanted Ex-President George W. Bush to fail despite the fact that we were at war in Iraq and Afghanistan,

poll-bush

This is nothing new. We already knew that Bush-haters wanted him to fail, no matter what to cost to America. — Most interestingly, this comes while many Democrats and the anti-Bush crowd are still complaining about Rush Limbaugh’s bold statement that he wants President Obama to fail. — I guess it’s okay for them to hope Bush fails, but that it is treason to wish for Obama’s failure in the attempt to establish a big government nanny-state.

Well I guess that as long as it is the all compassionate messiah Obama . . .



Respected Pollster says Media Polls Biased Against Republicans
October 23, 2008, 10:06 pm
Filed under: Democrats, McCain, Media Bias, Obama, Republicans, Sarah Palin | Tags: , ,

A respected Pollster, Kellyanne Conway, as reported by NewsMax (click here) who has a record of being extremely accurate in her predictions says that the media polls are biased against Republicans. — Well, that’s no surprise. Since the media has a left wing bias, it is only natural for their polls to reflect that bias as well,

Political polls conducted for most media organizations often are biased against Republicans, says Kellyanne Conway, one of the most respected GOP pollsters. As a result, Barack Obama’s lead over John McCain probably is exaggerated and is contributing unfairly to his momentum, says Conway, president and founder of the Polling Company.

Rather than slant the questions, pollsters distort the results by weighting tallies with more responses from people who are likely to vote for Democrats than is warranted, Conway tells Newsmax. For example, they wrongly assume that huge numbers of groups who favor Democrats will show up to vote.

Again, none of this is surprising. It is what I, as a Conservative Libertarian, have suspected about the anti-Republicanism and pro-Socialism in the media. — I have also posted in this blog not to worry about the polls, though sometimes they get to me as well.

As for the reasons the media distorts their polls,

To be sure, “Barack Obama has energized a critical mass of younger people and new voters to actually show up to the polls,” Conway says.

But in some cases, pollsters assume that those who cast votes will be as much as 40 percent Democrats, versus 25 percent Republicans.

“The country’s just not configured that way,” Conway says.

Another obvious reason for their poll distortions is to depress Conservative turnout and make us think it is no use to vote because it looks like we are going to lose. Well, let’s not give them what they want. Understand?

Conway draws an analogy to the way some news organizations endorse Obama, in effect, with their selection of stories and angles to pursue. In the same way, they endorse him through polls by oversampling respondents who are Democrats, Conway says.

“What is the incentive of the major media to have scientific, artfully constructed polling?” Conway says.

By creating the impression that McCain will lose, many media polls are creating a self-fulfilling prophecy, Conway says. Because of the attention their polls receive, they depress the turnout for McCain — not to mention cutting into his contributions, endorsements, and support.

“To me it’s a different kind of voter suppression, to constantly try to make people feel like the election is over before it’s even begun,” she says. “Before a single vote has been cast, they’re basically saying, about John McCain, he can’t win. What are the three most fatal words in politics? You can’t win.”

I repeat: Let’s not give the media what they want. To all conservatives who are planning to vote and to those who are feeling depressed: Go out and vote for McCain. If you don’t vote and if Obama wins then you will bear the blame of what Obama will do.

Looking back at polls over the years, “The errors in media polling rarely benefit a Republican,” Conway notes. “It wasn’t like anybody said, ‘Oh, Ronald Reagan will have a landslide in 1980.’ In fact you look back at the Dukakis numbers, the Perot numbers, there was always this presumption that the Republican was going to lose. Not just that the Democrat would win, but that the Republican was going to lose. There was a news report that concluded polls showed Kerry leading Bush 53 percent to 43 percent in 15 swing states.”

This is a great point. Again this is proof that we shoukld not stress to much over the left wing liberal polls from the Pro-Obama media. Since the media is pro-Obama, their polls should logically reflect that bias. I say not to worry about it.

Exit polls also tend to favor Democrats unfairly, Conway says.

“Remember the exit polls in the last election all favored John Kerry,” Conway says. “And I had to shoot off a quick memo to people saying that exit polls are more illustrative and anecdotal, more qualitative than quantitative and scientific in nature, because it’s a self-selected population of people who actually reveal to a total stranger how they just voted.”

That is different from revealing in a telephone poll who might get your vote.

I remember this. I also remember one poll that awarded Kerry 9-10 of the undecided voters, though I don’t remember what organization made it.

The emphasis on polls is dangerous, Conway says. “Polls have this insidious drip-by-drip daily impact,” she says. “The cumulative effect of those polls is to create public opinion as much as it is to reflect it. For that reason, some countries ban polls within 14 days of the election.”

Right now, she says, “News organizations are trying to show that Obama is so far in the lead that it helps him raise money, helps him get more endorsements, and it demoralizes conservatives.”

This is an important fact. Again, do not lean to much on the polls. Don’t let the media demoralize and discourage you.

Conway also give this advice telling us to ignore the polls,

If conservatives are upset about the lack of fairness and objective news media coverage, why do they look at these polls?” Conway says. “Why do they allow these polls to dictate how they feel about the presidential election before a single vote is cast?

Good advice, and I agree.



McCain doing better in Ohio than depicted by the media?
October 23, 2008, 5:02 pm
Filed under: Democrats, McCain, Media Bias, Obama, Republicans, Sarah Palin | Tags: , ,

Have a read,

continue to hear from my source on the ground in Ohio, who is seeing results for McCain that are surprisingly good. He puts it, “in a key bellweather section of Ohio, McCain continues to show internals that are exceeding the national pollsters’ results. This portends a potentially larger McCain victory in Ohio than Bush had in 2004.”

As for those national pollsters, note that Fox News/Rasmussen puts McCain up 2, NBC/Mason-Dixon puts McCain up 1 and Rasmussen had it a tie last week. My guy on the ground thinks this might mean that the internal polling is a leading indicator, and he’s noting that if McCain does as well among the key demographics in neighboring Pennsylvania as he is in Ohio, then the Democrats ought to be sweating about that state.

(Link: National Review)

So there is evidence that McCain is doing better in these battleground states than the media have lead us to believe. Internals are showing what other pollsters do not.

That’s far from a given, of course; Pennsylvania is a bluer state than Ohio. I don’t know that McCain will win Pennsylvania, but it isn’t like he hasn’t been given enough material – “spread the wealth around”, “no coal plants”, Murtha alternately calling his constituents “racists” and “rednecks,” the bitter small-town clinger comment, etc.

After Murtha calling western Pennsylvania racist, I wouldn’t blame the voters there for being turned off of the Democrats. — As a matter of fact, it so turns out that Murtha, the man who made the statement is now having trouble maintaining his seat in congress. (Click here) — Oh, well, the moron deserves it,

Democratic Rep. John Murtha leads retired Army Lt. Col. William Russell by a little more than 4 percentage points, within the Susquehanna Poll’s 4.9-point margin of error. The poll of 400 likely voters was conducted for the Tribune-Review on Tuesday, amid uproar over Murtha’s statement that some of his constituents are racist…

I hope he loses for his stupid statement!

Besides, previously in this blog (click here) I mentioned that Democrats are nervous about Pennsylvania despite CNN pollsters claiming Obama has a 13 point lead there. — I argue, like the National Review article, that concerns like this can be due to internal polling that may show Obama’s lead as less than what has been depicted. — We’ll see what happens.



The latest Pew Poll is an outlier
October 23, 2008, 2:23 am
Filed under: Democrats, McCain, Media Bias, Obama, Republicans, Sarah Palin | Tags: ,

With the new polls showing the race for president getting closer the Pew Poll is one of the few polls that still shows Obama’s lead off the charts. It shows Obama with a 14 point lead: 52 – 38. (Click here)

Forgive me if I am unimpressed with this poll but I just don’t find it convincing. Besides, it goes against the trend in polls that survey “likely voters” which show the race getting tighter.

For example, the BattleGround Poll today shows it as a two point lead for Obama. (Click here)

The AP poll, also out today, shows it as a 1 point race. (Click here)

The IDB/TIPP poll that has just come out shows it as a 3.7 point race. (Click here)

May I mention that these same polls recently showed Obama with a sizable lead just days ago? The most logical conclusion is that the Pew Poll is an outlier. Obama supporters can accept it if they want, but that would only be out of wishfull thinking.



The AP doesn’t like its own poll: Obama – 44% & McCain -43%
October 22, 2008, 7:28 pm
Filed under: Democrats, McCain, Media Bias, Obama, Republicans, Sarah Palin | Tags: ,

According to a new poll released by the AP today 44% of likely voters would vote for Obama and 43% would chose McCain. — This is yet more confirmation that the race has tightened and that Obama, in fact, has not opened his lead.

For the poll result, the AP starts making excuses to invalidate its own results:

Polls are snapshots of highly fluid campaigns. In this case, there is a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; that means Obama could be ahead by as many as 8 points or down by as many as 6. There are many reasons why polls differ, including methods of estimating likely voters and the wording of questions.

(Link)

“Ah, McCain may be lower so our poll means nothing.” — Wow! Talk about denial. Also, they get a political analyst to give his spin on it:

“If they all agree, somebody would be doing something terribly wrong,” he [Charles Franklin] said of polls. But he also said that surveys generally fall within a few points of each other, adding, “When you get much beyond that, there’s something to explain.”

The polls are all within a few points of eachother? Yeah right! They are all over the place! If an Obama lead from anywhere between 1 to 14 points is “within a few points of eachother” then I guess a double digit lead is insignificant.

To its credit, the AP gives a good justification for the race tightening:

The race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain’s “Joe the plumber” analogy struck a chord.