A Free Voice

Obama’s true lead: 2.5 points, possibly 1, not a landslide!
October 22, 2008, 2:24 am
Filed under: Democrats, McCain, Media Bias, Obama, Republicans, Sarah Palin | Tags: , ,

This comes from averaging two polls that have a good record of accuracy, Rasmussen and Battleground.

— The BattleGround poll out today shows the race between Obama and McCain in a dead heat with Obama winning 48% and McCain carrying 47%. — The Rasmussen poll shows Obama with a 4 point lead: 50 – 46%. Avaraged together the race is still in a statistical dead heat with Obama with a 2.5 point lead: 49 for Obama and 46.5% for McCain. These are polls that used “Likely voters” in their surgeys

The interesting fact here is that many polls give an error margin of 2 to 3%. So even if Obama is in the lead, it is not significant.

One could say that Rasmussen leans Republican so it is invalid. — However, the BattleGround is bi-partisan and leans Democratic a little.

Just as a note: I was going to use the Zogby poll but the sudden spread between the two candidates just didn’t come accross as credible to me. — Besides, I have not been impressed with Zogby’s accuracy in the past. After all, it was the same pollster that suggested Romney may walk away with California last February even though he would lose the nomination. — The numbers, I remember, turned out to be almost the exact opposite of the actual results in the primary.

Also, I have purposly excluded polls that use “registered voters” due to the fact that high percentages of them do not vote. In 2004, 45% of them stayed home. — I reject the RCP avarage due to the fact that it includes “registered voter” polls in the mix.


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