A Free Voice

Not so fast! This isn’t over yet
June 16, 2008, 4:58 pm
Filed under: McCain, Obama | Tags: , ,

Just days ago I heard Obama supporters being overconfident that this election has already been decided. This was because of Obamas’s apparent 6-7 point lead over John McCain. — What? They never took into account that Obama’s statistical lead was just a normal polling reaction? That’s all it was.

The Gallup Poll released yesterday shows his lead over McCain as only 2%. You don’t have to be a professional political analyst to know that a two point is not statistically significant.

I reasoned earlier in “Obama’s lead shrinks” that his bounce was not important,

Obama’s lead should shrink even more as his nomination becomes old news. I’m going to predict that he will get another bounce during the Democratic National Convention when he officially gets the nomination. I also think the same thing will happen with John McCain at his convention as well.

One has to take into account that if Obama’s 6 point lead over McCain can shrink by half in only two days, then, theoretically, so can the other half. So it is really foolish to predict this election with way to much certainty.

Personally, I think McCain is going to win, and then the Republicans will suffer more because of it. — Stuart Rothenberg in an editorial a few days ago explains “why a McCain win May be bad for the GOP and good for the Democrats.” He explains that this will only cause more infighting among the Republicans and that the Democrats can only benefit from it. And I agree.

If any Republicans want to save themselves an electoral disaster that would be inflicted by McCain, I would just recommend voting for Bob Barr, or anyone else. I think if Republicans lose this election that they will have more of a chance to win in 2012. And not just the White House either.


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