A Free Voice


Global Warming consensus? –I see none
June 8, 2008, 6:47 am
Filed under: global-warming

On a trip to Singapore in August of 2007, Al Gore took the opportunity to attack researchers that don’t agree with him on global warming accusing them of allying with polluters and manipulating climate data.

And about Global warming itself he said,

“This is one of the strongest of scientific consensus views in the history of science.”

His use of the word “consensus” is of special interest because it implies that all (or almost all) scientists agree with him on the subject of global warming. — As a matter of fact, the ABC News/Associated Press article where he is quoted as saying this on its own calls it “the scientific consensus.”

It’s easy enough to say everyone agrees with you, but that doesn’t make it true. And even if it could be shown that there is a consensus, citing that alone is not enough to prove his agenda.

But that is exactly what many global warming alarmists do. When their precious anti-carbon dioxide and anti-oil company agendas are questioned many of them will predictably cite the so-called “scientific consensus.” — So because of that the purpose of this blog post is to examine whether that “concensus” exists. And if it doesn’t, then a certain justification of many Al Gore supporters have of promoting his agenda is gone.

The truth to anyone who does the research is that the numbers just don’t add up to a consensus.

DailyTech.com a while ago reported on a study that on scientific papers written by climate researchers and reported that “the figures are surprising.” (See “Survey: Less Than Half of all Published Scientists Endorse Global Warming Theory“) It shows that,

Of 528 total papers on climate change, only 38 (7%) gave an explicit endorsement of the consensus. If one considers “implicit” endorsement (accepting the consensus without explicit statement), the figure rises to 45%. However, while only 32 papers (6%) reject the consensus outright, the largest category  (48%) are neutral papers, refusing to either accept or reject the hypothesis.  This is no “consensus.”

The figures are even more shocking when one remembers the watered-down definition of  consensus here.  Not only does it not require supporting that man is the “primary” cause of warming, but it doesn’t require any belief or support for “catastrophic” global warming.  In fact of all papers published in this period (2004 to February 2007), only a single one makes any reference to climate change leading to catastrophic results. (Emphasis in original)

48% of of these papers from 2004 – 2007 are neutral while 6% (or 32 scientific papers) reject it. Less then half endorse the idea.One thing to keep in mind is that this is a survey on published reports, not actual percentages of the percentages of the scientists themselves.

Obviously, there are much more than just 32 scientists that reject the global warming scare. The Business and Media Institute, on it’s website, has a really long list of scientists who are skeptical of global warming. — Also as it turns out, there are many scientists that do not appreciate the term “concensus” when it comes to global warming. A U.S. Senate Report released December 20, 2007 reveals that,

Over 400 prominent scientists from more than two dozen countries recently voiced significant objections to major aspects of the so-called “consensus” on man-made global warming. These scientists, many of whom are current and former participants in the UN IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), criticized the climate claims made by the UN IPCC and former Vice President Al Gore.

400 prominent scientists?  Hmm, interesting. . . –Also in May 2008 a news story broke that said 31,072 scientists signed a petition to debunk Al Gore and Global Warming. This petition included 9,021 Ph.D’s. — On the petition’s website the names of the skeptical scientists that signed can be found by the state they each live in, as well as their qualifications.

The home page also gives this statement:

There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s climate. Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth.

31,072 qualified signers? — This is now looking lesser like a “consensus” all the time. — Hey Al, are you still willing to stand by your claim? — Oh, I forgot. You think every researcher that disagrees with you has been bought off by polluters. Never mind. — Oh, and by the way Al, scientists that believe in global warming receive more money than skeptical scientists. — Also, there are several prominent scientists that used to believe in global warming and later became skeptics. A relatively new example of such a scientist is Kerry Emanuel who I mentioned in “Global Warming & Storms: What connection?.”

More proof that there is no scientific concensus on global warming was reported in a March 6, 2008 article in the Edmonton Journal in Canada. — It reported on a poll which showed a lot of variation in the scientific community on the subject,

Only about one in three Alberta earth scientists and engineers believe the culprit behind climate change has been identified, a new poll reported today.

The expert jury is divided, with 26 percent attributing global warming to human activity like burning fossil fuels and 27 percent blaming other causes such as volcanoes, sunspots, earth crust movements and natural evolution of the planet.

A 99-per-cent majority believes the climate is changing. But 45 percent blame both human and natural influences, and 68 percent disagree with the popular statement that “the debate on the scientific causes of recent climate change is settled.”

Also, on these poll results, Neil Windsor the executive director of the Association of Professional Engineers, Geologists and Geophysicists of Alberta (APEGGA) said,

We’re not surprised at all. There is no clear consensus of scientists that we know of. (Emphasis mine)

If there’s proof that Al Gore’s claim of a consensus is nothing more than hot air, it’s this: The statistics. His claim falls apart. All I can say is, Exxon Mobil couldn’t have bought them all. But even if such a consensus existed this wouldn’t prove the doomsday global warming scare. — Dr. Aurthur Robertson, who was one of the original skeptics, in a recent interview in The New American said,

Right now the UN claims that they have about 2,500 people involved in this and about 600 scientists seriously involved. This is what Al Gore would point to today.

We have more than 22,000 scientist signers of our global-warming petition who’ve looked at the issue and concluded essentially the opposite of these United Nations people. This says nothing about the science. Science does not depend on polling. Just because we have 22,000, and the UN may have 600, does not matter. The only thing our petition demonstrates is that there is no consensus among scientists in support of the UN claims.

Scientific questions are never settled in this way. Science is about natural truth. The truth doesn’t require any advocate. It stands by itself.

So any claims to any such wide agreement are at best misleading, and at worse dishonest because no such scientific consensus exists when it comes to global warming. Besides accusing all skeptical scientists of having been bought off is a really low blow and doesn’t prove or disprove what their own research says. And one has to remember that scientists that support the global warming hypothesis have received much more “dinero” than skeptics, so I consider that a non-issue.

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